Both ruling and opposition parties emphatically claim they'd win elections.It's normal as no party contesting elections ever claim in public they'd lose.It's no doubt Mamata is an efficient crowd puller and a charismatic leader.But it does not necessarily mean most of the people present in the crowd would vote for Mamata.In 2001 assembly elections Mamata drew almost similar crowds whereever she went but TMC fared badly in elections.Of course, it's true situation has considerably changed precisely since 2007.So psyche of the crowds in 2011 can't be compared with that of 2001 or of intermediate years.Singur and Nandigram episodes discernibly influenced voters as the LF was routed in Lok Sabha polls.What's most interesting is that the electorate apparently rewarded Mamata with overwhelming victory in Lok Sabha polls despite her pivotal role to compel Tatas to shift near-complete Nano factory to Gujarat.It's the task of the psychologists and sociologists to explain this bizarre behavior of the voters.Perhaps shoot-out at Nandigram and forcible acquisition of multi crop farm land hurt people more than Tata's exit from the state.Of course, psephologist might say LF was miserably defeated as TMC and Congress fought jointly.However,in the civic polls those followed Lok Sabha polls LF fared badly too. Incidentally,in civic polls there was no seat adjustment between Cong and TMC.
Two years have gone by since civic polls were held.LF claims it's regained their lost ground to a considerable extent. Assembly polls have already started.Survey in an electronic Channel forecasts only 76 seats for LF .Foreign media are very much eager about polls in Bengal.Many Western media houses have already come to stay in our state to see(or enjoy) for themselves the collapse of 34-year-old Left rule.But nobody knows what's in people's mind.So we keep looking forward to May 13, 2011.
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- Dr.Ujjal.K.Pal
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Thursday, April 21, 2011
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